Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? — odds by venue
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 12% | 10% | 10% on Kalshi |
| Indonesia | 10% | — | 10% on Polymarket |
| India | 7% | 12% | 7% on Polymarket |
| Argentina | 8% | 13% | 8% on Polymarket |
| Taiwan | 7.6% | 11% | 7.6% on Polymarket |
| European Union | 7.8% | 11% | 7.8% on Polymarket |
Venues
- Polymarket: Volume $214.6K · Liquidity $151K
- Kalshi: Volume $15K · Liquidity $15K
Resolution rules
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If a free trade deal with Argentina has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.