Which artists will have a Billboard #1 song this year?

As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 18:42:18 UTC, Polymarket traders price Mariah Carey (91.9%), Morgan Wallen (24.5%), Future (21.4%). The market has $94K in volume and closes on Sat, 02 Jan 2027.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Mariah Carey91.9%91.9¢8.1¢
Morgan Wallen24.5%24.5¢75.5¢
Future21.4%21.4¢78.5¢
Travis Scott18.0%18.0¢82.0¢
Ed Sheeran17.6%17.6¢82.4¢
Post Malone17.0%17.0¢83.0¢
Kendrick Lamar13.0%13.0¢87.0¢
Sabrina Carpenter11.0%11.0¢89.0¢
Luke Combs9.0%9.0¢91.0¢
The Weeknd8.0%8.0¢92.0¢
Lil Baby7.6%7.6¢92.4¢
Peso Pluma7.5%7.5¢92.5¢
Tyler, The Creator7.5%7.5¢92.5¢
Doja Cat7.5%7.5¢92.5¢
Frank Ocean5.9%5.9¢94.1¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart. Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026. Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; h…

Sources

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.