Who will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for in 2026?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 11:30:22 UTC, Polymarket traders price Saudi Arabia (22.0%), Russia (4.2%), China (3.4%). The market has $165K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Russia | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.8¢ |
| China | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
| 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.1¢ | |
| Meta | 2.7% | 2.7¢ | 97.3¢ |
| Iran | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| North Korea | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Anthropic | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| SpaceXAI / Elon Musk | 2.4% | 2.4¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Israel | 1.5% | 1.5¢ | 98.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $165K
- Liquidity: $143K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On October 13, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice announced that Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and Saudi national, had been arrested and charged after allegedly installing a covert audio recording device in an executive conference room at OpenAI's San Francisco offices (see: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/saudi-national-arrested-installing-surreptitious-audio-recording-device-openai). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or OpenAI publicly alleges that Abdulrahman Alfozan acted on behalf of the listed entity in connection with this incident between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For listed countries, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the government of the listed country, its intelligence or security services, or a state-affiliated entity of the listed country. Alfozan's nationality alone will not qualify. For listed companies or individuals, the alleged conduct must be attributed to the listed company, its subsidiaries, or the listed individual. A qualifying allegation must definitively state that Alfozan acted on behalf of, or under the direction, control, or sponsorship of, the listed entity. Statements that merely speculate about or suggest possible ties, or that describe only contact, cooperation, or association with the listed entity, will not qualify. Qualifying allegations include charging documents, court filings, and on-the-record statements by the…
Sources
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