Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 06:40:20 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (1.8%). The market has $199K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Opinion | 4.6% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $199K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
Related markets
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
- Will Bitcoin be above $200k by next year?
- When will Bitcoin cross $100k again?
- How low will Bitcoin get this year?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.