Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
As of Fri, 16 Oct 2026 22:41:45 UTC, Opinion traders price Yes (4.6%). The market has $52 in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4.6% | 4.6¢ | 95.4¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Polymarket | 1.8% |
Market details
- Venue: Opinion
- Volume: $52
- Liquidity: $7.0M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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