Will the Clarity Act become law?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:31:52 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2028 (22.0%), Before Oct 1, 2027 (16.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (13.0%). The market has $10.3M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10.3M
- Liquidity: $10.3M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2028:
If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following: Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications. The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure; Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework; Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs); Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities; Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions; Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts); Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress; Bills that are vetoed and not overridden; State legislation of any kind Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion: The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law; The Financial Innovation and Technolo…
Sources
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