How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 06:45:23 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 120 (99.0%), Above 140 (62.0%), Above 160 (3.0%). The market has $413K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 120 | 99.0% | 99.0¢ | 1.0¢ |
| Above 140 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| Above 160 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 180 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Above 190 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 210 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 170 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 200 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $413K
- Liquidity: $413K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 120:
If SpaceX has more than 120 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If source agency data from FAA is delayed due to a data delay, then the market will expire following data updating in accordance with Kalshi Rule 6.3b.
Sources
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