What will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 15:39:14 UTC, Polymarket traders price Over 2.5 (71.0%), 2.25–2.5 (24.5%), 2.0–2.25 (2.6%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Apr 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| 2.25–2.5 | 24.5% | 24.5¢ | 75.5¢ |
| 2.0–2.25 | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Over 2.5:
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Sources
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