Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 15:58:15 UTC, Polymarket traders price North Carolina (3.8%), South Carolina (3.6%), Louisiana (3.6%). The market has $34K in volume and closes on Tue, 08 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 3.8% | 3.8¢ | 96.2¢ |
| South Carolina | 3.6% | 3.6¢ | 96.4¢ |
| Louisiana | 3.6% | 3.6¢ | 96.4¢ |
| Mississippi | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| Alabama | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.8¢ |
| New Jersey | 3.2% | 3.2¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Texas | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| New Hampshire | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Maryland | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.1¢ |
| Georgia | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Virginia | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Rhode Island | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Hawaii | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.2¢ |
| New York | 2.6% | 2.6¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Connecticut | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $34K
- Liquidity: $19K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisor…
Sources
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