When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 10:00:54 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2029 (70.0%), Before Jul 1, 2028 (63.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (54.0%). The market has $48.2M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2027 | 49.0% | 49.0¢ | 51.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2027 | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Before Sep 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Before Aug 1, 2027 | 41.0% | 41.0¢ | 59.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Jun 1, 2027 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $48.2M
- Liquidity: $48.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2029:
If the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 60 before January 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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