Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 12:35:31 UTC, Polymarket traders price Lebanon (5.5%), Venezuela (5.5%), Saudi Arabia (3.6%). The market has $331K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lebanon | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| Venezuela | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| Saudi Arabia | 3.6% | 3.6¢ | 96.4¢ |
| Indonesia | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| Kuwait | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Pakistan | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Qatar | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.3¢ |
| Malaysia | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
| Cuba | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.8¢ |
| North Korea | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Syria | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
| Afghanistan | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Tunisia | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.4¢ |
| Iran | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.8¢ |
| Iraq | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 98.9¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $331K
- Liquidity: $382K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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