Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 17:35:13 UTC, Polymarket traders price Israel (11.0%), Russia (9.5%), Mexico (9.5%). The market has $276K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | 11.0% | 11.0¢ | 89.0¢ |
| Russia | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| Mexico | 9.5% | 9.5¢ | 90.5¢ |
| South Africa | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Pakistan | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| United Kingdom | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Japan | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Vietnam | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Canada | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Indonesia | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Australia | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| India | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Argentina | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Taiwan | 5.2% | 5.2¢ | 94.8¢ |
| European Union | 5.1% | 5.1¢ | 94.8¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | Kalshi | 7.0% | |
| Indonesia | Kalshi | 6.0% | |
| India | Kalshi | 10.0% | |
| India | Limitless | 8.0% | |
| Argentina | Kalshi | 11.0% | |
| Taiwan | Kalshi | 9.0% | |
| European Union | Kalshi | 8.0% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $276K
- Liquidity: $152K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources
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