Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 11:11:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Todd Blanche (63.0%), Ric Grenell (59.0%), Trent McCotter (50.0%). The market has $9.2M in volume and closes on Thu, 07 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Blanche | 63.0% | 63.0¢ | 37.0¢ |
| Ric Grenell | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| Trent McCotter | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | 46.0% | 46.0¢ | 54.0¢ |
| Stanley Woodward | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Dan Caine | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Susie Wiles | 40.0% | 40.0¢ | 60.0¢ |
| Amy Gleason | 37.0% | 37.0¢ | 63.0¢ |
| Sergio Gor | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Brad Cooper | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Tilman Fertitta | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Mike Waltz | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Christopher Landau | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Joe Gebbia | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9.2M
- Liquidity: $9.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Todd Blanche:
If Todd Blanche leaves as Attorney General before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Todd Blanche must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will the House impeach Trump?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.