Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 11:59:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (11.5%). The market has $162K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11.5% | 11.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Limitless | 11.5% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $162K
- Liquidity: $445K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources
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