Fed decision in December?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 10:58:43 UTC, Kalshi traders price Hike 25bps (70.0%), Fed maintains rate (32.0%), Cut 25bps (1.0%). The market has $3.5M in volume and closes on Wed, 09 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Fed maintains rate | 32.0% | 32.0¢ | 68.0¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | Limitless | 68.5% | |
| Fed maintains rate | Limitless | 29.5% | |
| Cut 25bps | Limitless | 0.8% | |
| Hike >25bps | Limitless | 0.8% | |
| Cut >25bps | Limitless | 0.8% |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3.5M
- Liquidity: $3.5M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Hike 25bps:
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 09, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
Sources
Related markets
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after December meeting?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
- Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
- Number of rate hikes this year?
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