Number of rate hikes this year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 09:39:26 UTC, Kalshi traders price Exactly 2 (67.0%), Exactly 1 (34.0%), Exactly 3 (2.0%). The market has $405K in volume and closes on Sun, 03 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 | 67.0% | 67.0¢ | 33.0¢ |
| Exactly 1 | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Exactly 3 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| At least 4 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $405K
- Liquidity: $405K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Exactly 2:
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is exactly 2, then the market resolves to Yes. Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes. An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Sources
Related markets
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