Number of rate cuts in 2026?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:32:17 UTC, Kalshi traders price Exactly 0 cuts (96.0%), Exactly 1 cut (2.0%), Exactly 14 cuts (1.0%). The market has $11.3M in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 0 cuts | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Exactly 1 cut | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Exactly 14 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 11 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 8 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 9 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 10 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Exactly 4 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 15 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 19 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 7 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 3 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Exactly 2 cuts | 0.0% | 0.0¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $11.3M
- Liquidity: $11.3M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Exactly 0 cuts:
If the Fed cuts 0 times starting Jan 1, 2026 and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
Sources
Related markets
- Fed decision in December?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after December meeting?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
- Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
- Number of rate hikes this year?
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