Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 09:19:55 UTC, Kalshi traders price United States (59.0%), China (35.0%), Russia (2.0%). The market has $196K in volume and closes on Wed, 01 Jan 2031.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 59.0% | 59.0¢ | 41.0¢ |
| China | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Russia | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| India | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| European Space Agency | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $196K
- Liquidity: $196K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for United States:
If United States is the first country to launch a manned mission to the Moon before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. If Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States.
Sources
Related markets
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in October?
- NASA lands on the moon?
- How many launches will SpaceX have this year?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- When will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.