2026: Trump's dream year?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:39:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (1.0%). The market has $722K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Dec 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $722K
- Liquidity: $722K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If **ALL** of the following occur: 1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND 2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND 3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND 4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026 then the market resolves to Yes. This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: - "Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - "Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?" uses CONTROL - "Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?" uses LGDP - "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?" uses ECONSTAT For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period. Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, qua…
Sources
Related markets
- Blue wave this year?
- Blue tsunami this year?
- Midterms: Democratic mega tsunami?
- Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
- Red wave this year?
- How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.