Will the Citrini scenario happen?
As of Fri, 06 Nov 2026 08:32:15 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (20.0%). The market has $26.0M in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jul 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $26.0M
- Liquidity: $26.0M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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